Survey Reveals Who Would Win in a Hypothetical Obama vs. Trump 2028 Election

Although the U.S. Constitution bars any president from being elected more than twice, a new Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll explored a fascinating “what if” scenario: What if Barack Obama and Donald Trump could both run again in 2028?

Trump, who has floated ideas about returning via “methods” beyond a standard election, inspired the poll’s premise. Assuming the same possibility for Obama, over 1,000 registered voters were asked: Who would win?

Obama led with 52% of the vote, while Trump trailed at 41%. Even when factoring in the survey’s 3.1% margin of error, Obama held a comfortable lead.

The former Democratic president saw strong support from minority groups—68% of Black voters and 73% of Hispanic voters chose him. Among independents, Obama also edged out Trump, 50% to 39%.

Interestingly, the poll also revealed that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton, earning 44% to her 43%.

While a real Obama–Trump showdown remains constitutionally impossible, the public’s opinion suggests Obama would come out on top—again.